April 20th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back! Happy Easter to those who celebrate.

Markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday, giving investors some relief from the Tariff headlines. As of now, S&P futures are down -0.5% and Nasdaq futures are down -0.5% as tariff concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: Tesla, GE Aerospace, Verizon, Intuitive Surgical, Raytheon Technologies, Chubb, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Moody’s, 3M, Capital One

• Wednesday: Phillip Morris International, IBM, AT&T, Thermo Fischer, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, Boeing, GE Vernova, O’Reilly Automotive, General Dynamics, Chipotle

• Thursday: Alphabet, P&G, T-Mobile, Merck, PepsiCo, Comcast, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Intel, Southwest Airlines

• Friday: Abbvie, Colgate Palmolive

Here’s a look at economic data this week.

• Tuesday: U.S. leading economic indicators (-0.5%)

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (220K), Durable goods orders (1.4%)

• Friday: Consumer sentiment (50.8)

Recruit for Investment Banking - with help from Investment Bankers in top groups:

High Yield Harry recently launched Banking Playbook: A 248 page IB Recruiting deck assembled by target and non-target bankers at a bulge bracket and an elite boutique bank.

Let’s be real - Investment Banking prep materials have gotten stale and pricey. It’s a no brainer to drop fresh, very detailed content at a price point that aggressively undercuts stagnant and complacent incumbents.

So for College Students and Career Pivot Analysts & Associates, know that we’ve got you covered with IB Recruiting Materials.

Earnings Corner 📜 

Trending Up 📈 

Netflix (NFLX): The streaming giant reported earnings that beat expectations, based on better-than-expected subscription and advertising income. Netflix saw revenue of $10.54B, up 13% y/y (vs. $10.52B expected) and EPS of $6.61 (vs. $5.71 expected). The company successfully implemented a price hike in late January, and mgmt. noted that they have not seen the impact of tariff fears on consumer behavior. The stock was up 3.5%

Netflix was a recent addition to High Yield Harry’s “High Yield Flagship Fund” strategy on Autopilot. You can access all the funds, including the “Golden Age of Private Credit” portfolio and “The Tariff Trade” portfolio here.

Blackstone (BX): Blackstone reported earnings that beat estimates, but Schwarzman warned that volatility and uncertainty surrounding tariffs may hamper asset sales in the near term. The firm saw $61.6B of inflows in the quarter, driving AUM up 10% y/y to $1.17T. Half of these funds went to Blackstone’s credit and insurance businesses, while real estate continued to drag, with AUM declining by 6%. The stock was up 0.8%

Charles Schwab (SCHW): Schwab reported earnings that beat estimates, along with strong gains in new assets and trading volumes. Revenue rose 18% y/y, while EPS was up 41%. The firm added $137.3B in new assets, with total client assets rising 9% y/y to $9.93T. Finally, daily average trading volume rose 17% q/q, due to volatility in the markets. The stock was up 0.6%

Trending Down 📉 

UnitedHealth Group (UNH): UnitedHealth stock plummeted after mgmt. dramatically cut back its 2025 profit outlook, due to rising medical costs. The firm noted that expenses related to its Medicare Advantage plans (which serve elderly and disabled customers) far exceeded expectations. This business segment has been a drag on UnitedHealth and many of its competitors since 2023. Mgmt. was forced to cut its EPS guide to $26.00-$26.50 (vs. $29.50-$30.00) previously. The stock was down 22.4%

American Express (AXP): Amex reported earnings that beat estimates, as wealthy cardholders’ spending is yet to be touched by tariff fears. The firm saw revenue of $17B (vs. $16.94B expected) and EPS of $3.64 ($3.47 expected). Cardholder spending rose 6% y/y, vs. 8% last quarter. Mgmt. maintained its 2025 outlook of 8%-10% revenue growth and EPS of $15.00-$15.50. The stock was down by 0.7%

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Bessent and Lutnick had to corner Trump to get him to reverse on tariffs: In a shocking reveal by the WSJ on Friday evening, it was revealed that cabinet members Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick were the driving forces behind the tariff pivot that stabilized the markets.

  • The two strategically waited for Peter Navarro to get into another meeting to bombard the President with the case on why they needed to do a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. They didn’t leave his side until the Truth Social post announcing this pivot went out

  • Not only does this show that Peter Navarro is the driving force behind the aggressive trade actions, but that the entire tariff strategy seems to be very volatile and planned on the fly

• Chicago Fed President warns about “artificially high” demand, followed by a summer drop-off: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CBS’ Face The Nation that he expects “preemptive purchases” by businesses and consumers, especially of big-ticket items that will cause a temporary bump in economic activity. He expects that will be short-lived, with a drop-off in activity in the summer.

• Negotiations with Japan seem to be progressing, with the Japanese looking to ease rules for American car imports. However, the Tokyo team originally left without a deal. Japan is one of our more friendly trading partners, so a deal with them should be one of the first deals completed.

• Yale sells up to $6B of its PE portfolio following Federal Government pressures. The $41.4B endowment has been heavily invested in alternative assets, and some of these assets are expected to be at fire sale discounts. This is notable for future endowment allocation mix, as the article makes the case that endowment private asset returns don’t outperform liquid assets and don’t provide an illiquidity premium

• Hertz is looking to raise debt. Hoping to manage litigation with bondholders and bump out the maturity of its 2026 revolver, the embattled car rental firm is working with boutique bank Ducera Partners to find fresh financing. The raise was in the works before news broke that Pershing Square had amassed a 19.8% stake in the company.

  • Activist investor Bill Ackman has suggested a partnership with Uber after describing Hertz as “an operating company combined with a highly leveraged portfolio of automobiles"

• The CLO ETF is being tested. The collateralized loan obligation market has exploded in recent years, with total assets in the handful of funds running rising by 12x to $30B since 2022. Despite the surge in investor interest, cracks are forming in the market with a record $1.8B in liquidations last week

• Meanwhile, the State Street Private ETF has seen no new flows in weeks. After much anticipation, the credit ETF jointly run by Apollo has had a lackluster recent performance. Some analysts are noting that there is demand for private assets, but there are concerns about the “difference in liquidity between the ETF wrapper and the underlying private assets”

• DHL is suspending shipments worth over $800 to the United States. The German postal company has seen multi-day delays due to policy changes on imports that now require more paperwork. DHL is one the world’s largest courier firms, delivering 1.5B parcels annually.

• Jobless Claims Decline, but Manufacturing and Housing Data Show Signs of Weakness: The Philadelphia Fed index dropped sharply to -26.4 in April, the lowest reading since 2023, reflecting continued deterioration in the manufacturing sector. U.S. housing starts declined by 11.4% in March, with single-family starts falling 14.2%, suggesting a slowdown in construction activity. Despite these signs of economic weakness, weekly jobless claims fell to 215k, indicating continued resilience in the labor market.

• Bill Gates thinks humans will be rendered irrelevant. The Microsoft founder predicted that in the next decade, artificial intelligence will replace doctors, teachers, and other professionals — the shortage of skilled workers will disappear, and society will have to redefine what ‘work’ means

• The IRS has yet another new chief. President Trump is replacing the head of the world’s largest tax agency for the fourth time this year after Scott Bessent complained that he was not consulted on the pick(Elon Musk apparently made the recommendation). Bessent is leading a mini-purge of the federal government, ousting another DOGE team member tapped to the IRS this week

• Border crossings have fallen dramatically, with apprehensions down 14% from February 2025 and down 95% from March 2024

A Message from Hebbia

Work a grind? It doesn’t have to be. Hebbia lets you do in minutes what used to take hours. Need to summarize a credit agreement or build a CIM? With Hebbia, you can do it faster than your MD can say, “This is what you signed up for.” 

By automating repetitive tasks and synthesizing endless data into clear, actionable insights, Hebbia frees up PE pros to focus on what they actually signed up for: making deals, growing companies, and maximizing returns.

Book a 20-minute demo to see why 1/3rd of the largest asset managers trust Hebbia. 

M&A Transactions💭 

Touchcast, developer of a comprehensive generative AI platform, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $500.0M by Infinite Reality.

Telent, provider of communications support services and a subsidiary of Pension Insurance Corporation, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $349.96M by M Group Services.

Supercent, developer of a mobile game platform, was acquired for $123.43M by MC Partners. EV/Net Income was 2.08x and EV/Revenue was 1.09x.

Sociedade Mineira De Neves Corvo, operator of copper and zinc mine and a subsidiary of EuroZinc Mining, was acquired for $1.52B by Boliden (STO: BOL). BMO Capital Markets advised on the sale.

A Portfolio of Three Beachfront Hotels located in Halkidiki, Greece owed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management was acquired for $438.76M by Sani Resort.

FreeNow, developer of a taxi booking application, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $197.0M by Lyft (NAS: LYFT). Lazard advised on the sale.

Altus Power, a developer, owner, and operator of large-scale photovoltaic and energy storage systems, was acquired for $2.2B by The Rise Fund. EV/EBITDA was 15.13x and EV/Revenue was 11.21x. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Yodel, provider of parcel delivery services, was acquired for $137.48M by InPost (WAR: IPT).

Worldpay, operator of an electronic payment and banking platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.425B by Global Payments (NYS: GPN). Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Fidelity National Information Services (NYS: FIS) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Issuer Solutions Business of Global Payments (NYS: GPN) for $12.0B.

Fictiv, operator of a digital manufacturing ecosystem, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $350.0M by MISUMI Group (TKS: 9962). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Glycomine, developer of orphan drugs, raised $115.0M of Series C venture funding led by Advent Life Sciences and CTI Life Sciences Fund.

Auradine, developer of a web infrastructure platform, raised $153.0M of Series C venture funding led by StepStone Group.

ATS Holding, operator of a Dutch company intended to specialize in a range of goods and services for agriculture in the CIS countries, raised $443.78M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Apple Is Coming for the Smart Home — And Fast

Apple’s rumored Face-ID door lock and smart display hub are more than just new products. It’s a clear signal: they’re going all-in on smart home automation.

The tech giant is doubling down on the smart home, the $158B industry that’s growing 23% annually.

And with Apple’s entry, investors are looking for the next breakout company - and potential acquisition target.

They’re chasing Google (acquired Nest, $3.2B) and Amazon (acquired Ring, $1.2B).

History shows: when Apple plays catch-up, they go big.

And there’s one startup perfectly positioned to benefit.

With 10+ patents, distribution in over 100 Best Buy stores, and a Home Depot launch in 2025, RYSE is built for a breakout.

Early investors in Ring and Nest saw life-changing returns.

Now, RYSE is open at just $1.90/share.

Invest today and unlock up to 25% in bonus shares

_{Past performance is not indicative of future results. Email may contain forward-looking statements. See US Offering for details. Informational purposes only.}

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 86% chance of the Fed doing nothing in May.

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

The Private Equity glut: PE is sitting on a record number of assets, with tariff pressures extending the dealmaking slowdown. The WSJ included this chart showing the volume of private equity portfolio companies waiting to be sold. While on the rise, it’s also worth noting that PE AUM has grown at a steady pace as well.

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

Housekeeping Items:

Our Weekly Poll:

Finance Jobs: Looking for a job in Finance? Join Buyside Hub to access the Job Board for free.

Recruit for Investment Banking: High Yield Harry and a group of Investment Bankers put together a 248 page for those recruiting for Investment Banking - sign up for free here to learn more about our decks.

Recruit for Private Equity: Check out Peak Frameworks through us, the Private Equity Course that has placed thousands of students into elite private equity shops.

Join beehiiv: Looking to start your own newsletter? Join beehiiv through us and you’ll get 30 days free and 3 months of a 20% discount.

Finance Merch Referrals ☕️ 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.

Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC (“Autopilot”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always be smart out there.