April 6th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back….I’ve got bad news for you all. Futures look terrible right now.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 3.9% and Nasdaq futures are down 4.7%. This follows the Nasdaq entering a bear market last week (down 21% from prior highs) and the S&P 500 falling 10.5% in a two-day period. Oil has fallen to <$60/bbl as well, the lowest level since April 2021. April 9th is the big day this week, as those reciprocal tariffs we highlighted in our last piece are set to go into place.

Here’s a look at earnings this week. With 1Q25 earnings kicking off this Friday with the Banks, expect to start seeing negative earnings revisions. Sure, the S&P P/E Forward Ratio is >18x, down a few pts YTD, but we haven’t seen the “E” part of the equation come down yet.

• Monday: Constellation Brands, Levi Strauss & Co

• Tuesday: RPM International, Walgreens

• Wednesday: Delta Air Lines

• Thursday: Carmax

• Friday: JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Fastenal

Here’s a look at economic data this week.

• Wednesday: Reciprocal Tariffs go into place

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, CPI (0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y), Core CPI (0.3% m/m, 3% y/y)

• Friday: PPI (0.2%), Core PPI, Consumer sentiment (55, prelim)

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Earnings Corner 📜 

Trending Up 📈 

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW): The potato producer reported earnings that beat estimates. The stock was up 11.3%

Trending Down 📉 

Acuity (AYI): Acuity reported earnings that beat estimates but missed on sales. The stock was down 9.2%

Autopilot Portfolio Update 💱 

Last week, High Yield Harry launched The Tariff Trade Portfolio on Autopilot. The current “AUM” of the portfolio is $239k.

This portfolio includes a mix of varying ETFs, such as the iShares U.S. Manufacturing ETF, the Tema American Reshoring ETF, the iShares US Basic Materials ETF, the iShares US Industrials ETF, and the First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF.

This then also includes Berkshire Hathaway, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF, Consolidated Edison, Verizon, Kroger, UnitedHealth Group, HCA Healthcare, McDonald’s, and Nucor. Many of these positions traded up yesterday as investors flocked to safe haven equities.

Additionally, the Corporate Dividends Fund has surpassed $100k of “AUM” as investors have flocked to blue chip companies such as AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Phillip Morris, Altria Group, Prudential, and American Tower Corp.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

Naturally, today’s headlines are very tariff heavy.

• Trump’s latest comments:

  • Trump was out with comments tonight noting he won’t make a deal with China unless it solves the trade deficit, saying deficits with China and the EU can only be solved with tariffs

  • He noted he is not intentionally engineering a market selloff

  • And most notably said about the markets that “sometimes you have to take medicine”

• Jim Cramer predicts a “Black Monday” crash: The CNBC host expects a Crash on Monday similar to the infamous 1987 collapse should Trump not strike a deal with major trading partners. Cramer also cited worries about how Europe could challenge U.S. tech companies imminently

  • Given the way futures look, it looks like Cramer is right for once

• Deal or No Deal? According to the U.S. Agricultural Secretary, 50+ countries have reached out regarding a trade deal. However, tariff deals with governments are apparently not a priority for Trump, with goals to implement the levies first and then lure companies to manufacture in the US.

  • India is in particular is one of the nations seeking to negotiate a new trade deal. New Dehli has indicated that the country won’t impose retaliatory measures post-”Liberation Day”

• The Latest from Lutnick: The Commerce Secretary said that the 10% base tariffs will remain in place for “days and weeks.” Beginning April 9, reciprocal tariffs will take effect, with the purported goal of on-shoring manufacturing and reducing American dependence on foreign suppliers

• Backlash from Beijing: China will impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. effective April 10. CCP officials described Trump’s actions as a “typical unilateral bullying practice”

  

• Havoc in Hanoi: Vietnam has reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. imports in response to Trump’s 46% tariffs on Vietnamese goods. But White House Advisor Pete Navarro isn’t satisfied, saying “If you simply lowered our tariffs and they lowered our tariffs to zero, we’d still run about $120 billion trade deficit with Vietnam. And the problem is all of the non-tariff cheating that they do.” Taiwan is also offering 0% tariffs as well

• The EU takes a different tack: Europe may go after Big Tech in response to tariffs. In response to the 20% blanket levy, the trade bloc is planning $28B in retaliatory tariffs and is leaving all options open. The products the EU is looking at right now includes U.S. meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing , chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners and toilet paper. Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen said the continent “holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market”

• Elon wants zero tariffs with the EU: At an event hosted by Italy’s deputy prime minister on Saturday, Musk said that "Europe and the United States should move, ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation”

• Stellantis pauses production at 2 Canadian and Mexican factories. With 25% automotive tariffs in effect, the Chrysler parent will idle the assembly plants for 2 weeks - 1 month.

• Bitcoin is trading down as a result of the tariff uncertainty. BTC dipped below $79K on Sunday night, after a surprise jump to close out tariff week

• The Senate approved a Republican budget blueprint which will extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. Senate Republicans argue the tax cuts will cost $1.5T, but non-partisan analysts determined it would actually add $5.7T to the deficit over the next decade

• JPMorgan says Trump’s tipping the country into a recession. Analysts now project a 60% chance of recession in 2025 with GDP contracting to -0.3% (down from 1.3% previously expected). The bank’s chief US economist said that unemployment would likely surpass 5%

  • Inflation is also expected to rise to 4.4% due to tariffs, with the Fed starting to ease in June - a challenging stagflationary environment that boxes in the Fed

• Main Street’s (seriously) buying the dip. Ignoring Cramer’s Black Monday warning, retail investors poured nearly $5B into the market last week, buying stocks at the largest level in 10 years. While institutions are pulling back from small-cap tech, individuals have picked them as their favorite bet

• IPO plans go on ice: Klarna and Stubhub are among the firms pulling their planned IPOs given market uncertainty. Medline Industries, a potential IPO worth $50B that was backed by Carlyle and Hellman & Friedman, is also delayed. EToro had also been scheduled to begin a roadshow this week

• Pencils down on private markets M&A: French building materials producer Cie. de Saint-Gobain held off on a sale of its auto glass unit, which was initially valued at $2.7B. Additionally, KKR walked away from a consortium discussing a €2B takeover of Gerresheimer AG, a German maker of packaging for drugs and cosmetics

• Bill Ackman says we’re heading for an economic nuclear winter: Ackman is known for hyperbole, but the Hedge Fund Manager gave a strong argument in an X Thread on Tariffs that echo lot of what we’ve been saying for a while now…”If…on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books”

  • “The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system. Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.”

• Employment bright spot: In March, employers unexpectedly hired 228k workers despite widespread federal layoffs and growing tariff-induced global economic uncertainty. Balancing out the positive surprise, unemployment rose from 4.1% from 4.2%

• "A Minecraft Movie” leveled expectations. Analysts project that weekend ticket sales will reach $157mm, more than double expected. The news will lift spirits in Hollywood after major flops like Snow White and Mickey 17 kicked off the new year

• Hailey Bieber could break the M&A drought. Launched in 2022, the model’s makeup brand Rhode, is up for sale and could go for more than $1B. JPMorgan and Moelis are also reportedly looking for interested buyers

• U.S. Aerospace company declares force majeure: Howmet Aerospace, a Pittsburgh based supplier for Airbus and Boeing, invoked a legal practice that allows it to pause contractual obligations during unavoidable and unpredictable circumstances. Analysts point to the news as evidence that tariffs are now threatening American military readiness

• Vista Equity pauses Finastra refinancing: The proposed $6B refi, led by Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, was meant to replace a $4.8B unitranche loan and return $1B of preferred equity the Sponsor put in back in 2023. Bankers couldn’t garner interest at S+450 given the volatility in the market

• Sunny-D is getting acquired. The citrus drink company and a portfolio of other juice makers are being bought for $1.5B by a Guatemalan conglomerate. The parent company, Harvest Hills Beverage Co., is being sold by PE firm Brynwood Partners

M&A Transactions💭 

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners has agreed to acquire The Colonial Pipeline for $9.0B.

AC Ventures, provider of early-stage technology venture funds, was acquired for $320.0M by Mitsubishi (TKS: 8058).

Old Point National Bank (NAS: OPOF), functions in the financial services domain, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $274.759M by TowneBank (NAS: TOWN). EV/Net Income was 28.9x and EV/Revenue was 4.46x. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, and Stifel advised on the sale.

Nevro, a medical device company, was acquired for $250.0M by Globus Medical (NYS: GMED). EV/Revenue was 0.61x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

LesserEvil, producer of organic and sustainable snacks, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $750.0M by The Hershey (NYS: HSY). EV/Revenue was 4.55x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Harvest Hill Beverages, manufacturer and distributor of beverages, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by Castillo Hermanos and Centerview Capital.

Allied Strips, manufacturer of steel products, was acquired for $2.175B by Jindal Steel Odisha.

Vadraj Cement, provider of cement catering, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $208.43M by Nuvoco Vistas Corporation (BOM: 543334).

SK Enpulse Chemical Mechanical Polishing Pad Business, manufacturer of polishing pads and a subsidiary of SK Enpulse, was acquired for $229.15M by Hahn & Company.

Anthos Therapeutics, operator of a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $3.1B by Novartis (SWX: NOVN). Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

C2X, manufacturer of large-scale green methanol products, has reached a definitive agreement to receive $100.0M of development capital from A.P. Moller-Maersk, A.P. Moller Holdings, and ENEOS Holdings. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Vestaron, developer of peptide-based biopesticides, raised $102.76M of venture funding through a combination of equity and debt from undisclosed investors.

Runway, developer of creative tools, raised $308.0M of Series D venture funding led General Atlantic at a pre-money valuation $3.0B.

Redpanda, developer of a modern streaming data platform, raised $100.0M of Series D venture funding led by GV at a pre-money valuation of $900.0M.

Plaid, developer of a data network programming platform, $575.0M of venture funding led by Franklin Templeton at a pre-money valuation $5.53B, but saw its 2021 valuation more than halved. Like other start-ups, the company has struggled to adapt to a normalized interest rate environment

Neurona Therapeutics, developer of regenerative cell therapies, raised $102.0M of venture funding from UCB Ventures, Cormorant Asset Management, Spur Capital Partners.

Aiper, developer and manufacturer of robotic swimming pool cleaners, raised $137.6M from Fluidra, Yunqi Partners, XVC.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in The Fed not making a move in May.

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC (“Autopilot”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always be smart out there.