What You Need To Know For March 13th

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March 13, 2025

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Earnings Corner 📜 

Groupon (GRPN): The discount coupon provider reported earnings that beat estimates, while also posting strong guidance. The stock was up 43.1%

Delta (DAL), American (AAL), United (UAL): Delta cut its Q1 outlook due to weak U.S. domestic air travel. The airline expects revenue growth of no more than 5% (vs. 6%-8% previously) and EPS of $0.30-$0.50 (vs. $0.70-$1.00). Mgmt. cited economic uncertainty and its impact on business and consumer travel. American Airlines released a similar announcement. Delta was down 19.3% over the last week, while American was down 20.9%, and United was down 18.7%

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Although Dick’s saw a record holiday quarter, economic uncertainty caused mgmt. to project disappointing 2025 results. While the company has little exposure to China, Canada, or Mexico, mgmt. believes that tariffs and a potential recession may cause consumers to rein in spending. Dick’s projected EPS of $13.80-$14.40 (vs. $14.86 expected). The stock was down 7.2%

Oracle (ORCL): The software giant reported an earnings miss, while forecasting revenue below analysts’ expectations. Q3 revenue of $14.13B was up 6% y/y (vs. $14.39B expected), while EPS came in at $1.47 (vs. $1.49 expected). Cloud infrastructure revenue was up 49% y/y to $2.7B, due to AI-related demand. For Q4, mgmt. expects revenue to grow 8%-10% (vs. 11% expected). The stock was down 2.2%

Puma (PUMSY): The athletic wear company reported disappointing earnings, while projecting disappointing 2025 results. Mgmt. noted the threat of tariffs and geopolitical tension. The stock was down 15.4%

SentinelOne (S): The cybersecurity firm beat earnings estimates, but its Q1 revenue guidance disappointed expectations. The stock was down 13%

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

  • CPI comes in lighter than expected, alleviating some concerns about the U.S. economy and driving a rally in U.S. indices yesterday. Annual and monthly inflation of 2.8% and 0.2% were 0.1% lower than estimates respectively. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 3.1% y/y and 0.2% m/m, below expectations

  • Trump Tariffs Snip Snap again. Yeah we’re having a hard time keeping track of things too. The President initially declared that he would double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, after Ontario raised taxes on American bound electricity. Trump instead reconsidered after Canada suspended the electricity tax and the countries began new trade talks. However, a 25% US tariff on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries took effect yesterday

  • Zelensky wants peace. After talks in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian President posted a statement saying that his country is ready to accept a US-outlined 30-day truce in Russia’s war. Russia has reportedly submitted terms need to begin talks to the U.S.

  • Bank of America layoffs: Bofa eliminated 150 junior roles due to weak deal flow, but will offer most of them roles outside of the Investment Bank. More than 10 MDs were let go

  • The FTC pushes on with antitrust probes, continuing investigation into Microsoft and Amazon. The FTC is pursuing a deceptive practices case against Amazon, but initially was expecting a delay due to limited staffing and budget

  • OpenAI partners with CoreWeave. The ChatGPT parent will take a stake in the cloud provider before its projected $35B IPO. Through a $12B deal, CoreWeave will provide computing power to train and run OpenAI’s models

  • Larry Summers says a recession is a coin toss. The Former Treasury Secretary said that the Trump Administration’s recent moves have undermined investor and consumer confidence. Now, he believes the country has a “50 percent prospect of a recession”

  • Southwest succumbs to Paul Singer’s pressure. After Elliot Investment Management began a fierce activist campaign last year, the airline is abandoning its decades old policy of allowing free checked bags and launching a basic economy ticket

  • Spirit Airlines has exited Chapter 11, with plans to shift towards more affluent travelers and redesign its loyalty program. Its debt load has been reduced by $795mm following the restructuring

  • iRobot shares fell more than 30% after noting there is “substantial doubt” about its ability to stay in business. The Company’s $1.7B sale to Amazon was squashed by regulators last year

  • Hedge funds want weather men. Millennium, Balyasny, Jane Street, and other hedge funds are paying $1mm+ to climate experts, hoping to find ways to cash in on escalating extreme weather events

  • Intel’s new CEO: Intel has named Lip-Bu Tan, the previous CEO of Cadence Design Systems as its CEO. Shares jumped 12% after hours, but are down -67% from 2021 highs

  • Starlink pens a new deal. Elon Musk inked a deal with local telecom magnate Sun Mittal to bring high-speed broadband to India. Musk has previously struggled to bring Teslas to the country, due to its tariff and regulatory barriers

  • The Cannabis Calamity. Reflecting a broader industry downturn, the once imagined “Napa Valley of Cannabis” in Colorado has collapsed due to market saturation, competition from other states, high taxes, and the persistence of the black market

  • Duterte detained. The ex-Philippine President was arrested after the International Criminal Court issued an Interpol warrant against him. The ICC is investigating his alleged involvement in crimes against humanity linked to the deadly "war on drugs," which resulted in thousands of Filipino deaths.

  • Open-Ended Bitcoin Futures in Asia. Riding a wave of Trump induced crypto optimism, Singapore’s largest exchange group is planning to launch the contracts later this year, joining Japan’s Osaka Dojima exchange. Initially, SGX will target institutional investors

  • Brevan Howard is slashing trading risk-taking as losses exceed 5%. The $35B hedge fund has been dealing with volatility swings over the past few weeks

  • McDonald’s is making moves. Aiming for 50,000 restaurants by 2027, the burger chain’s executives are looking to speed up menu development, improve supply chain efficiency, and introduce new technology to locations

  • Hinge Health has filed to go public. The digital physical therapy services provider reported a $12mm net loss in 2024, down from $108mm the year before. If successful, their listing would stand out in a period where VC-backed startups have struggled to go public

M&A Transactions💭 

ServiceNow (NYS: NOW) has acquired MoveWorks, developer of generative AI platform, for $2.8B

Matariki Forestry Group, provider of forest management, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $403.71M by The Rohatyn Group.

Checkpoint Therapeutics (NAS: CKPT), an immuno-oncology biopharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $355.0M by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (NSE: SUN PHARMA). EV/Revenue was 3,994.96x and EV/Cash Flow was 64.06x. Kroll and Locust Walk advised on the sale.

Strata, provider of construction materials, was acquired for $454.0M by Knife River (NYS: KNF).

Saxo Bank, operator of a fully licensed European bank, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.18B by J. Safra Sarasin Holding. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Redfin (NAS: RDFN), a residential real estate broker, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.75B by Rocket Companies (NYS: RKT). EV/Revenue was 1.68x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Natural Gas Compression Systems, manufacturer of natural gas compressors, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $357.0M by Archrock (NYS: AROC). Intrepid Financial Partners advised on the sale.

Marrella Private Wealth, provider of wealth management services, was acquired for $518.0M by Apella Wealth.

CommBase, operator of a digital asset trading platform, was acquired for $1.26B by IntlCom.

2Seventy Bio (NAS: TSVT), a cell and gene therapy company, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $505.006M by Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYS: BMY). EV/Revenue was 11.07x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Paladin Labs, operator of a specialty pharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $135.0M by Knight Therapeutics (TSE: GUD).

Fibrebond, manufacturer of an electronic product company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.4B by Eaton (NYS: ETN).

Care REIT (LON: CRT), a real estate investment trust, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $566.08M by CR United Bidco. Jefferies advised on the sale.

ALPHA Elektrotechnik, manufacturer of disconnectors for medium and high voltage networks, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $125.06M by TradeLink-KY. EV/Revenue was 9.92x.

AdHawk Microsystems, developer of a full-stack eye-tracking module, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $115.0M by Alphabet (NAS: GOOGL).

Laurent, producer of artisan bakery products, was acquired for $409.85M by Bridor.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Eurasian Resources Group, operator of diversified natural resources assets, received $2.5B of financing from CMOC China. The transaction was supported by $150.0M of debt financing.

Creamline Dairy Products, producer and distributor of milk and milk products, has entered into a definitive agreement to receive $106.83M of financing from Godrej Agrovet. The transaction values the company at $222.29M.

MediThinQ, developer of medical glasses, raised 12.4B Won of Series B venture funding led by Partners Investment.

Lila Sciences, developer of advanced AI platform, raised $200.0M of Seed funding led by March Capital, Flagship Pioneering, and General Catalyst.

One Investment Management and SPRIM Global Investment provided $300.0M to form a JV to provide financing services intended to accelerate clinical trial funding.

Cybereason, developer of an endpoint detection and cybersecurity platform, raised $120.0M of venture funding led by Liberty Strategic Capital and SoftBank Group.

Zolve, developer of a neo-banking platform, raised $251.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. $51.0M of Series B venture funding was led by Creaegis. $200.0M loan was provided by undisclosed lenders.

Zenmev, developer of a blockchain platform, raised $140.0M of venture funding led by VC VentureX.

SE Environment, developer and provider of urban solid waste treatment technology, raised $6687.93M of venture funding led by CCB Investments, China Life Investment Management Company, and China Insurance Investment Fund.

Plata, operator of a financial platform, raised $160.0M of Series A venture funding in the form of debt and equity led by Kora Management at a pre-money valuation of $1.34B.

Celestial AI, developer of a data center and AI computing platform, raised $250.0M of Series C1 venture funding led by Fidelity Management & Research Company at a pre-money valuation of $2.25B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Senate Democrats rejected the GOP’s funding bill, driving a potential Friday night shutdown.

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 26% chance of a Government shutdown before March 19th, 2025

New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Finance Merch Referrals ☕️ 

Until next time!

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